2011年我国农业将会继续稳定发展
Agricultural of China will continue to develop in 2011
发布于2011-10-21 17:59 | 次阅读
Released on 2011-10-21 17:59 | readings
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2011年,我国将把稳定发展农业生产作为管理通货膨胀和稳定消费价格水平以及实现经济平稳较快发展的基础。预计2011年会成为连续第8个粮食增产年。中央财政用于农业的支出安排合计为9884.5亿元,比上年增加1304.8亿元,增长15.2%。

具体来说,大豆需求将接近去年的水平,不过需求重点更多集中在出口市场。截止到1月6日,美国大豆出口检验数量已达8.42亿蒲式耳,相比之下,去年同期为7.99亿蒲式耳。考虑到出口销售数据依然偏高,因而未来两三个月内大豆出口与去年同期的差距将进一步拉大。但是由于豆价上涨,近来新的销售步伐同样放慢,因而春季和夏季的出口装运量可能会相应减少。今年春季大豆种植会面临来自其它农作物的激烈竞争,特别是玉米。在今年开始之前,农户已经提前预售了很多大豆。但是相比之下,国内大豆加工在本年度剩余时间内会面临非常高的成本。虽然豆油和豆粕价格非常高,但是大豆成本高涨导致加工利润缩小。这个因素可能会导致春季大豆加工步伐明显放慢。

另外,据农业部“全国农产品批发市场信息网”监测:2011年1月,农产品批发价格总指数是182.4(以2000年为100),“菜篮子”产品批发价格指数是181.7(以2000年为100)。还要指出的是,在过去的2010年,我国城镇居民人均消费性支出13471元,年均增长11.1%;农村居民人均生活消费支出4382元,年均增长11.4%。有专家指出,城乡居民消费结构在向发展性和享受性方向转变。

另据消息称, 去年年底,某控股集团与国家开发银行某分行签订了全面战略合作协议。根据协议,国家开发银行将向这个控股集团提供300亿元人民币的意向融资额度,大力支持地方发展三农,切实有效推进我国农副产品物流产业的快速发展和农业现代化进程。

在这样的宏观大环境下,我们期待着2011年我国农业稳定,持续,健康的发展。

In 2011, China will stabilize grain production and agricultural production; this helps to manage the inflation expectations and the level of consumer price and to achieve stable and rapid economic development. 2011 will be the eighth consecutive year experiencing the increasing grain production. The total expenditures from central government on agriculture are 9884.5 billion Yuan; increased 1304.8 billion Yuan more than last year, with an increase rate of 15.2%.

Specifically, soybean demand will be close to last year's level, but the demand will focus more on the export markets. Up to January 6, the amount of U.S. soybean export inspection reached 842 billion bushels, compared with the same period of last year, it was 7.99 billion bushels. Because of the relative high data of export sales, there will be greater gap of soybean exports between the next two to three months compared with last year. However, due to the rising soybean prices, the recent pace of sales also slowed, as a result, there would be a relatively reduction in exports shipments in spring and summer.

Also, we need to notice that in 2010, Chinese consumption expenditure of urban residents per capita was 13,471 Yuan, with an average annual increase of 11.1%; consumption expenditure of rural residents per capita was 4382 Yuan, with an average annual increase of 11.4%. Some experts pointed out that the consumption structure of urban and rural residents is changing in the direction of in the development and enjoyment. 

According to other sources, at the end of last year, a stock-holding corporation signed strategic cooperation agreement with a branch of the State Development Bank. According to the agreement, the State Development Bank will provide 300 billion Yuan to the stock-holding corporation to support the regional rural development, promote the effectiveness and efficiency of the logistics industry in China’s agricultural development and agricultural modernization.

In this macro environment, we look forward to a stable, sustainable and healthy development of Chinese agricultural development in 2011.

2011年,我国将把稳定发展农业生产作为管理通货膨胀和稳定消费价格水平以及实现经济平稳较快发展的基础。预计2011年会成为连续第8个粮食增产年。中央财政用于农业的支出安排合计为9884.5亿元,比上年增加1304.8亿元,增长15.2%。

具体来说,大豆需求将接近去年的水平,不过需求重点更多集中在出口市场。截止到1月6日,美国大豆出口检验数量已达8.42亿蒲式耳,相比之下,去年同期为7.99亿蒲式耳。考虑到出口销售数据依然偏高,因而未来两三个月内大豆出口与去年同期的差距将进一步拉大。但是由于豆价上涨,近来新的销售步伐同样放慢,因而春季和夏季的出口装运量可能会相应减少。今年春季大豆种植会面临来自其它农作物的激烈竞争,特别是玉米。在今年开始之前,农户已经提前预售了很多大豆。但是相比之下,国内大豆加工在本年度剩余时间内会面临非常高的成本。虽然豆油和豆粕价格非常高,但是大豆成本高涨导致加工利润缩小。这个因素可能会导致春季大豆加工步伐明显放慢。

另外,据农业部“全国农产品批发市场信息网”监测:2011年1月,农产品批发价格总指数是182.4(以2000年为100),“菜篮子”产品批发价格指数是181.7(以2000年为100)。还要指出的是,在过去的2010年,我国城镇居民人均消费性支出13471元,年均增长11.1%;农村居民人均生活消费支出4382元,年均增长11.4%。有专家指出,城乡居民消费结构在向发展性和享受性方向转变。

另据消息称, 去年年底,某控股集团与国家开发银行某分行签订了全面战略合作协议。根据协议,国家开发银行将向这个控股集团提供300亿元人民币的意向融资额度,大力支持地方发展三农,切实有效推进我国农副产品物流产业的快速发展和农业现代化进程。

在这样的宏观大环境下,我们期待着2011年我国农业稳定,持续,健康的发展。

In 2011, China will stabilize grain production and agricultural production; this helps to manage the inflation expectations and the level of consumer price and to achieve stable and rapid economic development. 2011 will be the eighth consecutive year experiencing the increasing grain production. The total expenditures from central government on agriculture are 9884.5 billion Yuan; increased 1304.8 billion Yuan more than last year, with an increase rate of 15.2%.

Specifically, soybean demand will be close to last year's level, but the demand will focus more on the export markets. Up to January 6, the amount of U.S. soybean export inspection reached 842 billion bushels, compared with the same period of last year, it was 7.99 billion bushels. Because of the relative high data of export sales, there will be greater gap of soybean exports between the next two to three months compared with last year. However, due to the rising soybean prices, the recent pace of sales also slowed, as a result, there would be a relatively reduction in exports shipments in spring and summer.

Also, we need to notice that in 2010, Chinese consumption expenditure of urban residents per capita was 13,471 Yuan, with an average annual increase of 11.1%; consumption expenditure of rural residents per capita was 4382 Yuan, with an average annual increase of 11.4%. Some experts pointed out that the consumption structure of urban and rural residents is changing in the direction of in the development and enjoyment. 

According to other sources, at the end of last year, a stock-holding corporation signed strategic cooperation agreement with a branch of the State Development Bank. According to the agreement, the State Development Bank will provide 300 billion Yuan to the stock-holding corporation to support the regional rural development, promote the effectiveness and efficiency of the logistics industry in China’s agricultural development and agricultural modernization.

In this macro environment, we look forward to a stable, sustainable and healthy development of Chinese agricultural development in 2011.

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