Brief Analysis of the Pros and Cons of 2011 RMB appreciation
Released on 2011-10-24 15:26 | readings
从2010年以来，国内外已经对人民币升值进行了无数次的分析与争辩。中国主要担心这会带来更严重的通货膨胀。
不过有国际经济学家认为人民币升值可以帮助中国经济结构从外向出口型转为内需主导型。如果人民币升值，那么会有更多的资源可以用于中国国内经济的发展。同时，也可以吸引大量的资金进入中国，这甚至还可以抵消由于投资成本增加而减少的投资额。目前，中国内需的增长远远大于出口，出超的情况也在改善，这两年的年出超率保持在6%左右。内需的增长刺激了国内生产的发展，所以从这一立场出发，人民币升值是有益的。
此外，人民币升值还有助于增强中国的购买力，提高社会福利，还能为将来人民币成为国际流通货币打下基础。
但是，也有人担心人民币升值所受到的来自美国的压力。虽然其中一部分来自对美国就业的考虑，但是也有政治原因包含在其中。从国际收支的角度来看，中国有巨大的财政赤字，如果任经济完全自由发展，就违背了经济规律，可能使经济陷入低迷。比如欧元应该适当的贬值，因为考虑到欧洲现在经济低迷，贬值有利于他们走出经济危机。
而中国的国际贸易还有巨大的发展潜力，如果人民币升值，中国的货物就会更加昂贵。国外就会减少购买中国货物转而消费他们国内产品，那么他们国家的内需求就会增加，而这得益于人民币升值。所以，美国对人民币升值施加压力，是政治、经济各种原因错综复杂的结果。
主要其的弊端还包括，随着人民币的升值，中国国家外汇贮备会遭受相应的减少。还可能导致银行坏账，失业率上升等问题。
Since 2010, both the domestic and international have carried out numerous analysis and debates about RMB appreciation. China's main concern is that this will cause more serious inflation.
However, some international economists believed that the RMB appreciation can help China's economic structure transform from the export-oriented to domestic demand-leading. If RMB appreciates, more resources can be used for China's domestic economic development. Also, China can attract a lot of funds; this can even offset the increasing investment costs which reduce the amount of investment. Currently, China's domestic demand growth is much greater than exports, surplus situation is also improving: the annual surplus rate for the past two years remained about 6%. The domestic demand growth stimulated the development of domestic production; so from this perspective, the RMB appreciation is beneficial.
In addition, the RMB appreciation will help enhance China's purchasing power, improve social welfare, and lay the foundation for RMB to become as an international currency in the future.
However, some people worry that RMB appreciation suffer the pressure from the United States. Although part of the pressure was from the United States’ unemployment situation, some political factors were also included. From the perspective of the international balance of payments, China has a huge fiscal deficit, if China let the economy develop freely, which violates economic laws and may lead to economic downturn. For example, the euro dollar should depreciate moderately due to the current sluggish economy in Europe; the depreciation can help them make through the economic crisis.
Moreover China's international trade has huge development potential. If the RMB appreciates, China’s merchandise will be more expensive. Foreign countries will buy less Chinese goods and choose to consume their countries domestic products. As a result, their own countries’ demands will increase; this is benefited from RMB appreciation. Therefore, the U.S’ pressure on RMB appreciation is the result of political, economic and variety of other reasons.
Its disadvantages also include: with the RMB appreciation, China's foreign exchange reserves will suffer a corresponding decrease. This may also lead to bad debts, rising unemployment rates and other issues.
从2010年以来，国内外已经对人民币升值进行了无数次的分析与争辩。中国主要担心这会带来更严重的通货膨胀。
不过有国际经济学家认为人民币升值可以帮助中国经济结构从外向出口型转为内需主导型。如果人民币升值，那么会有更多的资源可以用于中国国内经济的发展。同时，也可以吸引大量的资金进入中国，这甚至还可以抵消由于投资成本增加而减少的投资额。目前，中国内需的增长远远大于出口，出超的情况也在改善，这两年的年出超率保持在6%左右。内需的增长刺激了国内生产的发展，所以从这一立场出发，人民币升值是有益的。
此外，人民币升值还有助于增强中国的购买力，提高社会福利，还能为将来人民币成为国际流通货币打下基础。
但是，也有人担心人民币升值所受到的来自美国的压力。虽然其中一部分来自对美国就业的考虑，但是也有政治原因包含在其中。从国际收支的角度来看，中国有巨大的财政赤字，如果任经济完全自由发展，就违背了经济规律，可能使经济陷入低迷。比如欧元应该适当的贬值，因为考虑到欧洲现在经济低迷，贬值有利于他们走出经济危机。
而中国的国际贸易还有巨大的发展潜力，如果人民币升值，中国的货物就会更加昂贵。国外就会减少购买中国货物转而消费他们国内产品，那么他们国家的内需求就会增加，而这得益于人民币升值。所以，美国对人民币升值施加压力，是政治、经济各种原因错综复杂的结果。
主要其的弊端还包括，随着人民币的升值，中国国家外汇贮备会遭受相应的减少。还可能导致银行坏账，失业率上升等问题。
Since 2010, both the domestic and international have carried out numerous analysis and debates about RMB appreciation. China's main concern is that this will cause more serious inflation.
However, some international economists believed that the RMB appreciation can help China's economic structure transform from the export-oriented to domestic demand-leading. If RMB appreciates, more resources can be used for China's domestic economic development. Also, China can attract a lot of funds; this can even offset the increasing investment costs which reduce the amount of investment. Currently, China's domestic demand growth is much greater than exports, surplus situation is also improving: the annual surplus rate for the past two years remained about 6%. The domestic demand growth stimulated the development of domestic production; so from this perspective, the RMB appreciation is beneficial.
In addition, the RMB appreciation will help enhance China's purchasing power, improve social welfare, and lay the foundation for RMB to become as an international currency in the future.
However, some people worry that RMB appreciation suffer the pressure from the United States. Although part of the pressure was from the United States’ unemployment situation, some political factors were also included. From the perspective of the international balance of payments, China has a huge fiscal deficit, if China let the economy develop freely, which violates economic laws and may lead to economic downturn. For example, the euro dollar should depreciate moderately due to the current sluggish economy in Europe; the depreciation can help them make through the economic crisis.
Moreover China's international trade has huge development potential. If the RMB appreciates, China’s merchandise will be more expensive. Foreign countries will buy less Chinese goods and choose to consume their countries domestic products. As a result, their own countries’ demands will increase; this is benefited from RMB appreciation. Therefore, the U.S’ pressure on RMB appreciation is the result of political, economic and variety of other reasons.
Its disadvantages also include: with the RMB appreciation, China's foreign exchange reserves will suffer a corresponding decrease. This may also lead to bad debts, rising unemployment rates and other issues.