2011年中国经济热点问题展望
Forward-looking: hot China economic topic in 2011
Forward-looking: hot China economic topic in 2011
发布于2011-10-21 18:34 | 次阅读
Released on 2011-10-21 18:34 | readings
Released on 2011-10-21 18:34 | readings
世界经济研究所所长陈凤英 对世界经济形势有较深研究，陈所长长期从事“入世”后中国国家经济安全问题研究。展望2011年，陈所长谈到人们熟悉而又热点的中国经济问题。
1. 如果美金回流，您认为中国应该如何面对？
中国 要注意防范热钱风险。不宜过度看空美国经济。 新兴市场应该注意防范资金回流美国带来的风险。
2. 2011年中国的经济趋势和全球合作的重点是什么？
展望2011年，中国经济增速会放缓，风险或许不会像2010年那么多。全球经济治理改善也会是一个渐进过程。在国际经济合作方面，如果法国在担任二十国集团轮值主席国期间提出较为激进的提议，可能会引发矛盾。
3. 人民币升值为什么会被反复地强调？
这 个问题相当复杂。人民币作为一个焦点问题提出来，首先是世界经济发展的博弈，另外也是一种政治炒作。世界经济发展当中，东方国家增长比较快，西方国家增长比较低，还有国际力量当中出现了东兴西衰这种现象，结果出现了这种博弈。政治炒作很大的问题是中期选举，在美国是民主党和共和党的博弈。因为这种原因，把人民币给抬出来了，放大，作为国际性的问题来谈。
4. 作为经济特区，香港是否比上海更有竞争优势成为人民币离岸中心？
香港不必要担心，作出政策的时候，中央政府往往会考虑香港的利益，这次离岸中心的问题争了两三年，现在就基本定在香港了，优势总还是存在的，因为香港的国际化。
5. 人民币离岸市场是否可以完全依托香港呢？
完全依托香港可能不现实。人民币离岸市场很大，国际化的第一站就应该在香港。但是内地市场很大，而上海正好依托的内地市场，很有市场潜力。
6. 上海在未来几年的城市定位会是怎样？
沪港互补。上海以内陆为主，香港则在南方逐步拓展，中期是各不相同的。上海的自由港一定是目标，并将在转型中基本建成金融中心和航运中心。
Chen Fengying, dean of Institute of World Economy, who is very knowledgeable about global economic trend, she has engaged in researching about the security of national economy a while ago after China joined WTO. Forward-looking to this year, Dean Chen discussed about the common and hot China Economy topics.
1.If U.S. dollars repatriates, what China should do?
China has to on alert of hot money risk. It’s impropriate to overlook U.S. economy. Emerging market should prevent the risk of U.S. dollar repatriation.
China has to on alert of hot money risk. It’s impropriate to overlook U.S. economy. Emerging market should prevent the risk of U.S. dollar repatriation.
2.What are the main focus on the China economy trend and global cooperation?
Forward looking to 2011, the pace of economy growth will slow down and there will be fewer risks as in 2010. The improvement of global economy management would be a gradual process. In terms of global economy cooperation, if France proposes radically during the period of taking rotating presidency of the 20 nations group may lead to conflicts.
Forward looking to 2011, the pace of economy growth will slow down and there will be fewer risks as in 2010. The improvement of global economy management would be a gradual process. In terms of global economy cooperation, if France proposes radically during the period of taking rotating presidency of the 20 nations group may lead to conflicts.
3.Why RMB appreciation is repeatedly stressed?
This is a very complex issue. RMB appreciation as a focal issue is caused by gaming of global economy development, and it’s a political speculation on the other hand. The world economy shows the economy of eastern countries grows faster than the western countries. Internationally, also, some forces consider world economy appears to “eastern countries are flourishing and west countries are down falling” which results in the so called “gaming”. Regarding political speculation, it normally happens during the middle stage of president election, which is “gaming” between Democrats and Republicans in the United States. Because of this reason, RMB has been brought out and magnify its functionality to the global economy.
4. As special economic zone, does Hong Kong have more competitive advantages over Shanghai as the RMB offshore center?
Hong Kong doesn’t need to worry because the central government tends to considers about the interests of Hong Kong when they make decision. The decision of choosing offshore center has been disputing for 2 to 3 years; Hong Kong has its greatest advantage of internationalization over other advantages which has been chosen in the initial stage.
5.Can RMB offshore market solely rely on Hong Kong?
Completely relying on Hong Kong is not enough. RMB market is huge, the first international harbor should be in Hong Kong, but the main land market is massive, Shanghai luckily relies on main land market which has great potential.
6.What is the city positioning for Shanghai in the coming years?
Shanghai can complement with Hong Kong。 Shanghai focus on inland and Hong Kong expend the south gradually. The mid-term goal is different. Shanghai is aim to be Freeport, during the transformation, Shanghai will be built as financial and shipping center.
世界经济研究所所长陈凤英 对世界经济形势有较深研究，陈所长长期从事“入世”后中国国家经济安全问题研究。展望2011年，陈所长谈到人们熟悉而又热点的中国经济问题。
1. 如果美金回流，您认为中国应该如何面对？
中国 要注意防范热钱风险。不宜过度看空美国经济。 新兴市场应该注意防范资金回流美国带来的风险。
2. 2011年中国的经济趋势和全球合作的重点是什么？
展望2011年，中国经济增速会放缓，风险或许不会像2010年那么多。全球经济治理改善也会是一个渐进过程。在国际经济合作方面，如果法国在担任二十国集团轮值主席国期间提出较为激进的提议，可能会引发矛盾。
3. 人民币升值为什么会被反复地强调？
这 个问题相当复杂。人民币作为一个焦点问题提出来，首先是世界经济发展的博弈，另外也是一种政治炒作。世界经济发展当中，东方国家增长比较快，西方国家增长比较低，还有国际力量当中出现了东兴西衰这种现象，结果出现了这种博弈。政治炒作很大的问题是中期选举，在美国是民主党和共和党的博弈。因为这种原因，把人民币给抬出来了，放大，作为国际性的问题来谈。
4. 作为经济特区，香港是否比上海更有竞争优势成为人民币离岸中心？
香港不必要担心，作出政策的时候，中央政府往往会考虑香港的利益，这次离岸中心的问题争了两三年，现在就基本定在香港了，优势总还是存在的，因为香港的国际化。
5. 人民币离岸市场是否可以完全依托香港呢？
完全依托香港可能不现实。人民币离岸市场很大，国际化的第一站就应该在香港。但是内地市场很大，而上海正好依托的内地市场，很有市场潜力。
6. 上海在未来几年的城市定位会是怎样？
沪港互补。上海以内陆为主，香港则在南方逐步拓展，中期是各不相同的。上海的自由港一定是目标，并将在转型中基本建成金融中心和航运中心。
Chen Fengying, dean of Institute of World Economy, who is very knowledgeable about global economic trend, she has engaged in researching about the security of national economy a while ago after China joined WTO. Forward-looking to this year, Dean Chen discussed about the common and hot China Economy topics.
1.If U.S. dollars repatriates, what China should do?
China has to on alert of hot money risk. It’s impropriate to overlook U.S. economy. Emerging market should prevent the risk of U.S. dollar repatriation.
China has to on alert of hot money risk. It’s impropriate to overlook U.S. economy. Emerging market should prevent the risk of U.S. dollar repatriation.
2.What are the main focus on the China economy trend and global cooperation?
Forward looking to 2011, the pace of economy growth will slow down and there will be fewer risks as in 2010. The improvement of global economy management would be a gradual process. In terms of global economy cooperation, if France proposes radically during the period of taking rotating presidency of the 20 nations group may lead to conflicts.
Forward looking to 2011, the pace of economy growth will slow down and there will be fewer risks as in 2010. The improvement of global economy management would be a gradual process. In terms of global economy cooperation, if France proposes radically during the period of taking rotating presidency of the 20 nations group may lead to conflicts.
3.Why RMB appreciation is repeatedly stressed?
This is a very complex issue. RMB appreciation as a focal issue is caused by gaming of global economy development, and it’s a political speculation on the other hand. The world economy shows the economy of eastern countries grows faster than the western countries. Internationally, also, some forces consider world economy appears to “eastern countries are flourishing and west countries are down falling” which results in the so called “gaming”. Regarding political speculation, it normally happens during the middle stage of president election, which is “gaming” between Democrats and Republicans in the United States. Because of this reason, RMB has been brought out and magnify its functionality to the global economy.
4. As special economic zone, does Hong Kong have more competitive advantages over Shanghai as the RMB offshore center?
Hong Kong doesn’t need to worry because the central government tends to considers about the interests of Hong Kong when they make decision. The decision of choosing offshore center has been disputing for 2 to 3 years; Hong Kong has its greatest advantage of internationalization over other advantages which has been chosen in the initial stage.
5.Can RMB offshore market solely rely on Hong Kong?
Completely relying on Hong Kong is not enough. RMB market is huge, the first international harbor should be in Hong Kong, but the main land market is massive, Shanghai luckily relies on main land market which has great potential.
6.What is the city positioning for Shanghai in the coming years?
Shanghai can complement with Hong Kong。 Shanghai focus on inland and Hong Kong expend the south gradually. The mid-term goal is different. Shanghai is aim to be Freeport, during the transformation, Shanghai will be built as financial and shipping center.
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