英国《金融时报》:中国通胀数据相当准确
UK "Financial Times": China's inflation data is quite accurate
发布于2011-10-24 15:31 | 次阅读
Released on 2011-10-24 15:31 | readings
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1月25日英国《金融时报》题名为“中国通胀数据相当准确”一文中提到,中国国内及国外的许多人对中国官方通胀统计数据深感怀疑,辩称中国的实际价格涨幅,远远大于政府发布的消费价格指数 (CPI) 。

然而,瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森•安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示,若与英国《经济学人》杂志(The Economist)知名的巨无霸汉堡包指数(Big Mac Index)进行比较,就会证明中国官方的通胀数据其实相当准确。

巨无霸指数显示,2003年初,一个麦当劳(McDonald’s)巨无霸汉堡包在北京、上海和深圳的平均价格为10.20元人民币,而到了2010年底,这一价格已升至14.50元人民币。在这8年期间的年度通胀率为4.4%,而官方报告的通胀率为3.1%。但在美国、日本、欧洲、新加坡、波兰、墨西哥和匈牙利,当地巨无霸指数与官方通胀率也存在相似的差异。安德森表示:“这些经济体都没有引发投资者怀疑,认为当地存在普遍的通胀统计数据误报。”

此文还指出,世界各地的汉堡包价格上涨速度,往往快于整体消费价格指数,因为在多数地方,食品价格上涨得更快。安德森说:“换言之,根据巨无霸汉堡包指数,中国官方的价格统计数据与其它经济体同样准确。”

安德森表示,许多中国人在被追问到涨价细节时,都会透露出他们自己的消费模式从路边的饺子摊到品牌连锁餐厅,从购买假皮革便鞋到购买耐克(Nike)运动鞋。“这些例子的共同点当然是,它们都代表着生活水平的提高;现金支出也许因此快速增加,但按照国际标准,这不算通胀。”

An article named "China's inflation data is quite accurate" published on UK Financial Times indicates many people from China and overseas doubt about China's official inflation data. They dispute that China’s real price index is much higher than the CPI published by the government.

However, Jonathan Anderson, economist of UBS acclaimed, comparing with the popular "Big Mac Index" theory which is derived from Economist Magazine, China's official inflation statistics could be proved very accurate. "Big Mac Index" shows, at the beginning of 2003, one McDonald's Big Mac in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen sold an average price or 10.20 Yuan; however, by the end of 2010, this price has increased to 14.50 Yuan. The annual inflation rate is 4.4% while the official inflation rate is 3.1% during the past 8 years. At the same time, United States, Japan, Europe, Singapore, Portland, Mexican and Hungary experienced the similar difference between the official inflation rate and the Big Mac Index. Anderson believes:"These economies didn't bring about investors' suspicion, they believe there are commonly existing errors in the local inflation report."

This article also pointed out that the hamburger price increased faster than the overall consumer price index around the world, especially, in some places, the food price increased much faster. Anderson said: "In another way, according to Big Mac Index, the official inflation data from China is as equally accurate as the data from other countries."

Anderson also alleged that many Chinese people will say their consumption revolution started from buying from food stand to dinning in branded chain restaurant, from buying fake leather shoes to buying Nike sneakers. "The common ground of all these examples showing that the living standard has been improved in China, and also followed by a faster increase of cash expenditures, however based on the international standard, this is not inflation."

1月25日英国《金融时报》题名为“中国通胀数据相当准确”一文中提到,中国国内及国外的许多人对中国官方通胀统计数据深感怀疑,辩称中国的实际价格涨幅,远远大于政府发布的消费价格指数 (CPI) 。

然而,瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森•安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示,若与英国《经济学人》杂志(The Economist)知名的巨无霸汉堡包指数(Big Mac Index)进行比较,就会证明中国官方的通胀数据其实相当准确。

巨无霸指数显示,2003年初,一个麦当劳(McDonald’s)巨无霸汉堡包在北京、上海和深圳的平均价格为10.20元人民币,而到了2010年底,这一价格已升至14.50元人民币。在这8年期间的年度通胀率为4.4%,而官方报告的通胀率为3.1%。但在美国、日本、欧洲、新加坡、波兰、墨西哥和匈牙利,当地巨无霸指数与官方通胀率也存在相似的差异。安德森表示:“这些经济体都没有引发投资者怀疑,认为当地存在普遍的通胀统计数据误报。”

此文还指出,世界各地的汉堡包价格上涨速度,往往快于整体消费价格指数,因为在多数地方,食品价格上涨得更快。安德森说:“换言之,根据巨无霸汉堡包指数,中国官方的价格统计数据与其它经济体同样准确。”

安德森表示,许多中国人在被追问到涨价细节时,都会透露出他们自己的消费模式从路边的饺子摊到品牌连锁餐厅,从购买假皮革便鞋到购买耐克(Nike)运动鞋。“这些例子的共同点当然是,它们都代表着生活水平的提高;现金支出也许因此快速增加,但按照国际标准,这不算通胀。”

An article named "China's inflation data is quite accurate" published on UK Financial Times indicates many people from China and overseas doubt about China's official inflation data. They dispute that China’s real price index is much higher than the CPI published by the government.

However, Jonathan Anderson, economist of UBS acclaimed, comparing with the popular "Big Mac Index" theory which is derived from Economist Magazine, China's official inflation statistics could be proved very accurate. "Big Mac Index" shows, at the beginning of 2003, one McDonald's Big Mac in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen sold an average price or 10.20 Yuan; however, by the end of 2010, this price has increased to 14.50 Yuan. The annual inflation rate is 4.4% while the official inflation rate is 3.1% during the past 8 years. At the same time, United States, Japan, Europe, Singapore, Portland, Mexican and Hungary experienced the similar difference between the official inflation rate and the Big Mac Index. Anderson believes:"These economies didn't bring about investors' suspicion, they believe there are commonly existing errors in the local inflation report."

This article also pointed out that the hamburger price increased faster than the overall consumer price index around the world, especially, in some places, the food price increased much faster. Anderson said: "In another way, according to Big Mac Index, the official inflation data from China is as equally accurate as the data from other countries."

Anderson also alleged that many Chinese people will say their consumption revolution started from buying from food stand to dinning in branded chain restaurant, from buying fake leather shoes to buying Nike sneakers. "The common ground of all these examples showing that the living standard has been improved in China, and also followed by a faster increase of cash expenditures, however based on the international standard, this is not inflation."

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