2011 expects an increase of 5% for CPI, and an increase of 6.5% for PPI
Released on 2011-10-21 18:13 | readings
在2011年，分析师认为中国仍需面对较大的物价上涨压力，而货币存量过大是导致物价上涨的主要原因之一。
经济学家预计1月份CPI为5%。去年12月食品价格环比上升-0.2~0.4个百分点，据此测算，CPI同比增幅为4.1%~4.7%。但非食品类CPI在国际能源价格上涨和国内油价上调的推动下继续上行，这也是预测CPI仍然会在4%以上的重要原因。
同时,随着农产品价格上涨趋势的显现，现在粮食问题非常值得重视。虽然国家公布2010年是中国粮食连续第7个增产年，短期内不会出现粮食价格总体上涨过快的现象。但是，国内粮食供求一直处于一种紧张平衡状态，而且，由于目前国际粮价飙升，一旦国内粮食出现短缺，粮食价格将面临严重压力，而粮价上涨很容易推动物价结构性上涨。
由于中国经济未来减速幅度很小、物价中长期上涨压力较大、国际大宗商品市场价格未来仍将保持震荡上行的态势,主要生产资料价格上涨压力较大。预计2011年PPI平均水平可能上探至6.5%左右。
而1月份PPI,其估值为6.1%。商务部商务预报数据显示,在2010年年底生产资料价格略微下降之后,最近连续2-3周均出现小幅上涨。
2011年中西部开发中基础设施建设力度较大, 地方政府投资扩张的冲动很强,而中央保障房建设的铺开也会抵消部分商品房调控压力, 2011年固定资产投资增速可能会在23%左右。
在进出口领域,预期进口增速会维持在26.9%左右, 主要原因是,从国内外经济环境来看,11年初国内经济增速下调有限, 进口需求仍将维持高位,而国际大宗商品价格近期呈震荡上行的态势。而出口方面, 其增速则保持略低增速, 为23.2%。
For 2011, analysts think that China will still face great uprising price pressures, and the excessive money deposit is one of the leading factors for the rising prices.
Economists expect the CPI to be 5% in January. Last December, food prices increased between -0.2 and 0.4 percentage points. According to this, CPI will increase from 4.1% to 4.7% on the year-to-year basis. But non-food CPI, pushed by the international energy prices and domestic oil prices, will continue to rise. This is one important reason that the predicted CPI is still greater than 4%.
With the obvious upward trend of agricultural prices, the food problem now is worthy of attention. Although our country in 2010 announced that China's grain had experienced seven consecutive years of increasing production, in the short term, there will not be overall soaring food prices phenomenon. However, there has always been a tension balance between the domestic food supply and demand. But, due to the soaring international food prices, once there occurs shortage for domestic food, food prices will be under serious pressure. And the rising food prices are likely to promote the structural price to rise.
Since China's economic future deceleration rate is very small, there will still exist upward pressure on prices in the long term, international large commodity prices will remain volatile-upward trend, there exists great pressure on main production material. The average PPI for 2011 is estimated to be about 6.5%.
PPI in January is estimated to be 6.1%.The data of Ministry of Commerce indicated that after production material prices falling slightly at the end of 2010; there appeared slightly upward trends in the consecutive 2-3 weeks.
In 2011, there will be greater efforts in infrastructure in central and western development; local government investment expansion is strong. Also, the central indemnificatory housings construction will offset part of the commercial pressure. Fixed asset investment growth in 2011 may be around 23%.
For the import and export aspect, import growth is expected to remain at 26.9%; it is mainly because from domestic and international economic environment aspect that at the beginning of 2011, the downward trend in the domestic economic growth will be limited, import demand will still remain high, while international large commodity prices will show volatile trend recently. The export growth will remain at a slightly low rate of 23.2%.
在2011年，分析师认为中国仍需面对较大的物价上涨压力，而货币存量过大是导致物价上涨的主要原因之一。
经济学家预计1月份CPI为5%。去年12月食品价格环比上升-0.2~0.4个百分点，据此测算，CPI同比增幅为4.1%~4.7%。但非食品类CPI在国际能源价格上涨和国内油价上调的推动下继续上行，这也是预测CPI仍然会在4%以上的重要原因。
同时,随着农产品价格上涨趋势的显现，现在粮食问题非常值得重视。虽然国家公布2010年是中国粮食连续第7个增产年，短期内不会出现粮食价格总体上涨过快的现象。但是，国内粮食供求一直处于一种紧张平衡状态，而且，由于目前国际粮价飙升，一旦国内粮食出现短缺，粮食价格将面临严重压力，而粮价上涨很容易推动物价结构性上涨。
由于中国经济未来减速幅度很小、物价中长期上涨压力较大、国际大宗商品市场价格未来仍将保持震荡上行的态势,主要生产资料价格上涨压力较大。预计2011年PPI平均水平可能上探至6.5%左右。
而1月份PPI,其估值为6.1%。商务部商务预报数据显示,在2010年年底生产资料价格略微下降之后,最近连续2-3周均出现小幅上涨。
2011年中西部开发中基础设施建设力度较大, 地方政府投资扩张的冲动很强,而中央保障房建设的铺开也会抵消部分商品房调控压力, 2011年固定资产投资增速可能会在23%左右。
在进出口领域,预期进口增速会维持在26.9%左右, 主要原因是,从国内外经济环境来看,11年初国内经济增速下调有限, 进口需求仍将维持高位,而国际大宗商品价格近期呈震荡上行的态势。而出口方面, 其增速则保持略低增速, 为23.2%。
For 2011, analysts think that China will still face great uprising price pressures, and the excessive money deposit is one of the leading factors for the rising prices.
Economists expect the CPI to be 5% in January. Last December, food prices increased between -0.2 and 0.4 percentage points. According to this, CPI will increase from 4.1% to 4.7% on the year-to-year basis. But non-food CPI, pushed by the international energy prices and domestic oil prices, will continue to rise. This is one important reason that the predicted CPI is still greater than 4%.
With the obvious upward trend of agricultural prices, the food problem now is worthy of attention. Although our country in 2010 announced that China's grain had experienced seven consecutive years of increasing production, in the short term, there will not be overall soaring food prices phenomenon. However, there has always been a tension balance between the domestic food supply and demand. But, due to the soaring international food prices, once there occurs shortage for domestic food, food prices will be under serious pressure. And the rising food prices are likely to promote the structural price to rise.
Since China's economic future deceleration rate is very small, there will still exist upward pressure on prices in the long term, international large commodity prices will remain volatile-upward trend, there exists great pressure on main production material. The average PPI for 2011 is estimated to be about 6.5%.
PPI in January is estimated to be 6.1%.The data of Ministry of Commerce indicated that after production material prices falling slightly at the end of 2010; there appeared slightly upward trends in the consecutive 2-3 weeks.
In 2011, there will be greater efforts in infrastructure in central and western development; local government investment expansion is strong. Also, the central indemnificatory housings construction will offset part of the commercial pressure. Fixed asset investment growth in 2011 may be around 23%.
For the import and export aspect, import growth is expected to remain at 26.9%; it is mainly because from domestic and international economic environment aspect that at the beginning of 2011, the downward trend in the domestic economic growth will be limited, import demand will still remain high, while international large commodity prices will show volatile trend recently. The export growth will remain at a slightly low rate of 23.2%.