Leonard Cheng: housing bubble in China is obvious
Released on 2011-10-21 18:15 | readings
香港科技大学商学院院长郑国汉博士，是一位熟悉香港经济的学者。他对中国房价问题有独特的见解， 他认为中国房产市场有泡沫存在。
1. 您认为什么是房产泡沫的明显征兆？
这个（住房）价格升幅过快，而且这个价格跟我们市民的购买力或者收入已经是越来越脱离，这些都是泡沫出现的一些象征。
2. 如何适当改变这种市场格局？
救市政策不要过度，不能把经济搞得过于火热。中国与美国的情况不同，不需要巨量的货币去刺激经济。过多的流动性，会吹起资产价格泡沫；因此，“我们对这个流动性应该有更多的关注，不要让它泛滥，进一步把它收缩一下。”
3. 您如何看待中国房产权改到70年这一问题？
这一制度始发于香港，而香港则是学习英国的经验。中国施行这一制度是有一定道理的，但要防范土地国有带来的分配不公和腐败问题。
4. 香港回归后的经济自由度是否下降了？
我不这么认为，香港要发展，更多的是靠香港人自己的努力，中央只要保障香港可以继续利用其本身的优势去竞争便可。
5. 香港是曾经经历过资产泡沫和泡沫的破裂，那么你觉得最值得吸收的经验是什么？
从个人的角度来说，不要冒过大的险，尤其是自己负担不起的险。假如房价不升反降，利息从一个低水平提高一个比较正常的高水平，你能否还是支持的住？或者是你根本就负不起，银行会逼你，要把这个房子拍卖。所以从个人角度来说，必须考虑到自己的能力，支撑能力。
从政府国家和政策的角度，在有泡沫现象的时候，政府就应该出台一些政策，令这个泡沫不要吹的过大。例如，我记得有一次看到报道，当时日本在房价高峰时期，东京一个这个城市，它的总的价值，房地产价值是超越美国整个国家。那你就可以想象这个泡沫是吹得多厉害。但是日本人当时乐在其中，认为说不定可能还能够上涨。就好象我以前听过的一个说法，香港的股票市场在四五千点，香港或者其他地方都认为有泡沫危险。但是我听说，在接近五六千点的时候，国内还有些人相信，我们会从六千点跑到一万点。所以所谓泡沫的意思就是，很多人相信市场有吸引力的根据是他们的乐观情绪而不是事实根据。
Leonard Cheng, Dean of Business School of HKUST, has a unique perspective towards house price in China. He believes there are clear signs of a housing bubble in China.
1.What do you think is the obvious sign of the housing bubble?
The (housing) prices rose too fast which is increasingly beyond people’s buying power, thus showing signs of a housing bubble.
2.What can we do to change the market structure?
We shouldn’t over-bailout the market and we shouldn’t force the economy to over-heat. China is in a different situation compared to the United States which makes it unnecessary to spend a huge amount of money stimulating the economy. Excess liquidity would blow up the price bubble; therefore, we should pay more attention to the liquidity as to prevent the market from shrinking after overflowing.
3.What’s your opinion about the Chinese property ownership that has been changed to 70 years?
This system originates from Hong Kong, which was similar to the British system. However, China stated the reason to execute this plan was to prevent the unfair distribution and corruption issues caused by government-own-property.
4.After reunification with mainland China, do you think Hong Kong’s economy is becoming less free?I don’t think so. Hong Kong’s economic growth depends on the efforts all the people in Hong Kong; they just hope that the central government allows Hong Kong to use its own competitive advantages.
5.Hong Kong has experienced an asset bubble and its burst, what do you think is the most worth-mentioning lesson we could learn?
From individual perspective, don’t risk if you can’t afford. If house price didn’t increase but decline and the interest rate went up to a higher level, can you still bear it? What if the bank pushes you to foreclosure when you can’t pay off? So you have to consider your financial situation and bearing capacity.
From government and policy perspective, government should reinforce some policies to control this “bubble” from big to huge when a bubble exists. For instance, once I read a report at the time when the house price was at the peak time in Japan, the total value of Tokyo’s real estate property is more than the value of the whole United States. However, Japanese people were so happy about that, thinking the house price might continue to rise. Some people from Hong Kong and other places thinking it’s dangerous when the stock market reach 5, 000 or 6, 000 points, but I also heard that some people in mainland China believes it would go up to 10,000 from 6, 000 point. The so called “bubble” means many people believe the market is attractive based on their optimism rather than from reliable sources.
香港科技大学商学院院长郑国汉博士，是一位熟悉香港经济的学者。他对中国房价问题有独特的见解， 他认为中国房产市场有泡沫存在。
1. 您认为什么是房产泡沫的明显征兆？
这个（住房）价格升幅过快，而且这个价格跟我们市民的购买力或者收入已经是越来越脱离，这些都是泡沫出现的一些象征。
2. 如何适当改变这种市场格局？
救市政策不要过度，不能把经济搞得过于火热。中国与美国的情况不同，不需要巨量的货币去刺激经济。过多的流动性，会吹起资产价格泡沫；因此，“我们对这个流动性应该有更多的关注，不要让它泛滥，进一步把它收缩一下。”
3. 您如何看待中国房产权改到70年这一问题？
这一制度始发于香港，而香港则是学习英国的经验。中国施行这一制度是有一定道理的，但要防范土地国有带来的分配不公和腐败问题。
4. 香港回归后的经济自由度是否下降了？
我不这么认为，香港要发展，更多的是靠香港人自己的努力，中央只要保障香港可以继续利用其本身的优势去竞争便可。
5. 香港是曾经经历过资产泡沫和泡沫的破裂，那么你觉得最值得吸收的经验是什么？
从个人的角度来说，不要冒过大的险，尤其是自己负担不起的险。假如房价不升反降，利息从一个低水平提高一个比较正常的高水平，你能否还是支持的住？或者是你根本就负不起，银行会逼你，要把这个房子拍卖。所以从个人角度来说，必须考虑到自己的能力，支撑能力。
从政府国家和政策的角度，在有泡沫现象的时候，政府就应该出台一些政策，令这个泡沫不要吹的过大。例如，我记得有一次看到报道，当时日本在房价高峰时期，东京一个这个城市，它的总的价值，房地产价值是超越美国整个国家。那你就可以想象这个泡沫是吹得多厉害。但是日本人当时乐在其中，认为说不定可能还能够上涨。就好象我以前听过的一个说法，香港的股票市场在四五千点，香港或者其他地方都认为有泡沫危险。但是我听说，在接近五六千点的时候，国内还有些人相信，我们会从六千点跑到一万点。所以所谓泡沫的意思就是，很多人相信市场有吸引力的根据是他们的乐观情绪而不是事实根据。
Leonard Cheng, Dean of Business School of HKUST, has a unique perspective towards house price in China. He believes there are clear signs of a housing bubble in China.
1.What do you think is the obvious sign of the housing bubble?
The (housing) prices rose too fast which is increasingly beyond people’s buying power, thus showing signs of a housing bubble.
2.What can we do to change the market structure?
We shouldn’t over-bailout the market and we shouldn’t force the economy to over-heat. China is in a different situation compared to the United States which makes it unnecessary to spend a huge amount of money stimulating the economy. Excess liquidity would blow up the price bubble; therefore, we should pay more attention to the liquidity as to prevent the market from shrinking after overflowing.
3.What’s your opinion about the Chinese property ownership that has been changed to 70 years?
This system originates from Hong Kong, which was similar to the British system. However, China stated the reason to execute this plan was to prevent the unfair distribution and corruption issues caused by government-own-property.
4.After reunification with mainland China, do you think Hong Kong’s economy is becoming less free?I don’t think so. Hong Kong’s economic growth depends on the efforts all the people in Hong Kong; they just hope that the central government allows Hong Kong to use its own competitive advantages.
5.Hong Kong has experienced an asset bubble and its burst, what do you think is the most worth-mentioning lesson we could learn?
From individual perspective, don’t risk if you can’t afford. If house price didn’t increase but decline and the interest rate went up to a higher level, can you still bear it? What if the bank pushes you to foreclosure when you can’t pay off? So you have to consider your financial situation and bearing capacity.
From government and policy perspective, government should reinforce some policies to control this “bubble” from big to huge when a bubble exists. For instance, once I read a report at the time when the house price was at the peak time in Japan, the total value of Tokyo’s real estate property is more than the value of the whole United States. However, Japanese people were so happy about that, thinking the house price might continue to rise. Some people from Hong Kong and other places thinking it’s dangerous when the stock market reach 5, 000 or 6, 000 points, but I also heard that some people in mainland China believes it would go up to 10,000 from 6, 000 point. The so called “bubble” means many people believe the market is attractive based on their optimism rather than from reliable sources.