Goldman: Chinese Government's Contraction Policy Is Way behind the Curve, Inflation Will Explode
Released on 2011-10-21 18:41 | readings
根据研究院乔海伦的最新研究得出的结论认为：2010年中国试图收缩货币政策，为时已晚而且力度不够。这就是说，中国的通货膨胀可能越演越烈。
下图显示了从2000年以来的产出差额和CPI通胀数据持续的正比关系。根据这个关系，高盛增加了2010年原预计的CPI通胀2.4%到调整后的3.5%，预计PPI通胀达到5.5%。 他们增加通胀的预计值是因为增长通货膨胀之间的关系前景不佳。
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高盛认为及时有效的收缩政策在这个阶段是有必要的，而过于紧缩的政策风险仍然存在。中国现行收缩政策仍然过于宽松。尽管决策者可能很快再次对信贷配额，他们仍然认为又会需要超过一个月的时间，来决定是否采用全面的紧缩政策。因此，这使通货膨胀的风险越来越高。
According to the latest research from Goldman Sachs' Helen Qiao, while the Chinese government attempt to tighten its monetary policy in 2010, it will likely be too little too late. This means Chinese inflation could explode.
The following chart shows the output gap and CPI inflation data since 2000 revealing a consistently positive relationship. Based on this relationship, they adjust the 2010 CPI inflation forecast to 3.5% from 2.4%, and expect PPI inflation to reach 5.5%. Goldman raises their inflation forecasts due to the deteriorating outlook on the growth-inflation nexus.
Goldman Sacks believes timely and effective policy tightening is warranted at this stage and the risk of over-tightening remains limited. The tightening policy remains too loose but too tight. Policymakers may impose credit quotas again soon; they still believe it will take them more than another month to decide whether to adopt a full-scale tightening. This therefore leaves the risks to inflation and growth on the upside.
根据研究院乔海伦的最新研究得出的结论认为：2010年中国试图收缩货币政策，为时已晚而且力度不够。这就是说，中国的通货膨胀可能越演越烈。
下图显示了从2000年以来的产出差额和CPI通胀数据持续的正比关系。根据这个关系，高盛增加了2010年原预计的CPI通胀2.4%到调整后的3.5%，预计PPI通胀达到5.5%。 他们增加通胀的预计值是因为增长通货膨胀之间的关系前景不佳。
高盛认为及时有效的收缩政策在这个阶段是有必要的，而过于紧缩的政策风险仍然存在。中国现行收缩政策仍然过于宽松。尽管决策者可能很快再次对信贷配额，他们仍然认为又会需要超过一个月的时间，来决定是否采用全面的紧缩政策。因此，这使通货膨胀的风险越来越高。
According to the latest research from Goldman Sachs' Helen Qiao, while the Chinese government attempt to tighten its monetary policy in 2010, it will likely be too little too late. This means Chinese inflation could explode.
The following chart shows the output gap and CPI inflation data since 2000 revealing a consistently positive relationship. Based on this relationship, they adjust the 2010 CPI inflation forecast to 3.5% from 2.4%, and expect PPI inflation to reach 5.5%. Goldman raises their inflation forecasts due to the deteriorating outlook on the growth-inflation nexus.
Goldman Sacks believes timely and effective policy tightening is warranted at this stage and the risk of over-tightening remains limited. The tightening policy remains too loose but too tight. Policymakers may impose credit quotas again soon; they still believe it will take them more than another month to decide whether to adopt a full-scale tightening. This therefore leaves the risks to inflation and growth on the upside.